Sunday, July 31, 2016

Do the Political Party Conventions Matter? Not according to the Betting Markets...

Think what you will about the party conventions that just wrapped up, but one thing worth pointing out is that, despite the so-called boost in polling that candidates receive coming out of their convention, temporary as it may be, this boost doesn't really exist if you look at a different metric than polls - the political betting markets.

Political betting markets have often proved to be a better predictor of electoral outcomes than public opinion polls, particularly the further away the analysis is done from Election Day.  So with the Republican and now Democratic conventions just completed, this is what the betting markets have had to say regarding who will win the presidential election...

Click image to enlarge

This is a 30-day snapshot with the conventions occurring during the second half of the chart.  Do you notice those drastic swings for and against Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump?  If not, you're not alone.  There is virtually no discernible change for either candidate.

For the record, as of July 31st, the betting markets favor Hillary Clinton winning the presidency over Donald Trump by a 68 to 35 margin (these are not percentages but rather how many cents it would cost per dollar to "Buy Yes" for each candidate).

So do the conventions matter?  According to the betting markets, not in the slightest.



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At 2:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

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